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| == Useful Resources ==
| | {{#restricted:{{13.1 Denver Bullet Study}}}}{{NavCard|prev=12.2 Grill the Guest|next=13.2 Deliberative Polling}} |
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| <tabber>
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| |-|Lecture Video=
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| <br /><center><youtube>Qs6kZ0dv_Ec</youtube></center><br />
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| |-|Discussion Slides=
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| {{LinkCard | |
| |url=https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ceysMd4bCqIbLsDOmZEsAvyxNvrhApdASCAIVpASFlU/
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| |title=Discussion Slides Template
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| |description=The discussion slides for this lesson.
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| }}
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| <br />
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| |-|Handouts and Activities=
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| {{LinkCardInternal | |
| |url=:File:13.1 Denver Bullet Study - Worksheet.pdf
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| |title=Glorin-Fuilder Fireworks Study Handout
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| |description=Handout for all parts of the Glorin-Fuilder fireworks study activity.}}
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| <br />
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| |-|Readings and Assignments=
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| {{LinkCardInternal
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| |url=:File:Science, Values, and Human Judgment - Hammond, Adelman.pdf
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| |title=Science, Values, and Human Judgment
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| |description=Original paper outlining the Denver Bullet Study.}}
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| <br />
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| </tabber>
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| == Recommended Outline ==
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| === Before Class ===
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| Print out one copy of the handout for each student.
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| === During Class ===
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| {| class="wikitable" style="margin-left: 0px; margin-right: auto;"
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| |5 Minutes
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| |Come up with some fun way to assign the roles of spokesperson and notetaker (e.g. earliest birthday in the year, lives furthest from campus). Remind them of the responsibilities of these roles.
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| |-
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| |10 Minutes
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| |Go through the [[#Review Questions|review questions]].
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| |-
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| |20 Minutes
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| |Have the students work through [[#Part 1: Diagraming the Study|part 1]] of the Glorin-Fuilder study.
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| |-
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| |20 Minutes
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| |Have the students work through [[#Part 2: Finishing the Study|part 2]] of the Glorin-Fuilder study.
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| |-
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| |20 Minutes
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| |Lead the students through the [[#Campus Development|campus development]] discussion.
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| |-
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| |5 Minutes
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| |Have the students answer the [[#Final Questions|final questions]].
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| |}
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| == Lesson Content ==
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| === Review Questions ===
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| [[File:Denver Bullet Study Diagram.png|thumb|A diagram of the Denver Bullet Study process.]]
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| <ol start=1><li>Should we just let experts make all the decisions in society? Why or why not?</li></ol>
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| {{BoxAnswer|We ''could'' let experts make all the decisions. Presumably, since they're experts, they would make more optimal decisions than non-experts. The question is what are they optimizing ''for''. If we want the general public to have a say in that, then they need a role in our decision-making processes.}}
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| <ol start=2><li>What is the role of values in the Denver Bullet Study?</li></ol>
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| {{BoxAnswer|In the Denver Bullet Study, experts identified different qualities that bullets could have (such as "injury" or "stopping effectiveness"). The different stakeholders assigned different weightings to those qualities depending on which of them they valued having in the selected bullets.}}
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| <ol start=3><li>What is the role of facts in the Denver Bullet Study?</li></ol>
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| {{BoxAnswer|There are lots of roles for facts. The main one is in the weighting of different fundamental attributes of the bullets (such as "weight" or "nuzzle velocity") to different resulting qualities (such as "injury" or "stopping effectiveness").}}
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| <ol start=4><li>How does the Denver Bullet Study synthesize facts and values in arriving at a group decision?</li></ol>
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| {{BoxAnswer|It separated the analysis of facts about what bullets would have what effects from the weighting of values about what effects the stakeholders care about. In this way the experts spoke only on the facts of the decision and the stakeholders spoke only on the values.}}
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| <ol start=5><li>Suppose all policy decisions were made in a process like the Denver Bullet Study. Would such a country be a democracy or an epistocracy?</li></ol>
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| {{BoxAnswer|This is a little bit of a trick question. It would have attributes of both!}}
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| <ol start=6><li>Where do the values, facts, and synthesis appear on the diagram of the Denver Bullet Study?</li></ol>
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| {{BoxAnswer|[[File:Denver Bullet Study Components.png|frame]]}}
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| === Part 1: Diagraming the Study ===
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| ==== Background ====
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| [[File:Glorin-Fuilder Study Diagram.png|thumb||A potential diagram of the Glorin-Fuilder Study process.]]
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| Suppose you are the advisor to Prince Kumperdinck of Glorin, who is trying to develop an agreement with the neighboring nation, Fuilder.
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| The bakers of Glorin, who live close to the Glorin-Fuilder border, have been repeatedly disrupted by Fuilder's tendency to launch loud, bright fireworks late at night (this makes it difficult for the bakers to get up early to prepare the day's bread). The bakers of Glorin believe that the residents of Fuilder should only be allowed to use small, silent sparklers, such as the “Warm Greetings."
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| The residents of Fuilder consider this solution inconceivable, because launching true fireworks each night is part of their cultural tradition and helps maintain the happiness of the nation. They have been using the “Fire Tornado” for over 100 years since its invention and they don't want to relinquish such flamboyance that represents their culture.
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| There is rising tension between the citizens of Glorin and Fuilder, as neither side is willing to back down. Thinking back to your favorite class in advisor school, you recall a decision-making technique that involved integration of facts and values to come to a compromise in a similar scenario (the Denver Bullet Study). Prince Kumperdinck puts you in charge of implementing this technique. Your hope is that you can select a kind of firework that will satisfy both parties as much as possible.
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| ==== Questions ====
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| # Suppose you are a citizen of one of the two towns. What are some of the factors of these fireworks that you might be concerned about?
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| # The actual citizens of Glorin and Fuilder have been polled on this question. It turns out that the two dominant factors they care about are loudness and brightness. Create a diagram based on the one used for the Denver Bullet Study.
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| Stakeholders make a list of factors they care about. These are the boxes in column two. The stakeholders assign weights based on how much they care about each of these factors. Then experts make a list of measurable quantities that contribute to the factors the stakeholders are concerned with. These are column one. The experts are blinded as to how much the stakeholders care about each of the items in column two. Then ''you'' determine the best final outcome.
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| === Part 2: Finishing the Study ===
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| {{BoxCaution|Students are often surprised by the need to do arithmetic in this lesson. Make sure to remind them of the meaning of the numbers on the handout and be on the lookout for anyone that seems lost.}}
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| ==== Discuss Relevant Stakeholders ====
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| Discuss who the relevant stakeholders and experts are in this situation and describe their roles in the decision-making process. (Note: you are not inventing a decision-making process. You are implementing the process discussed in class for integrating facts and values, exemplified by the Denver Bullet Study.)
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| Now that you have the different criteria for the fireworks, you decided to conduct a survey among the citizens to get their preferences of each criteria. You ask them on a scale of -10 to 10, how much they like loud or bright fireworks. 10 is the highest preference while -10 is the lowest preference, and 0 is neutral. A negative number would indicate that they hate loud/bright fireworks. The results of the survey are tabulated below.
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| {| class="wikitable" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto"
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| |+Citizen's preference based on a survey you conducted:
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| |Goodness of Loudness
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| |Goodness of Brightness
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| |Average Fuilder
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| |1
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| |10
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| |-
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| |Average Glorin
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| |−10
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| |1
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| |}
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| {{BoxTip|We have a negative value because people in Fuilder really hate loud fireworks. They would strongly prefer the opposite of loudness.}}
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| At the same time, your colleague spent time with the firework experts and got some physical measurements of the available fireworks. The numbers are normalized so that 10 means the most loud/bright and 1 means the least loud/bright. The results are tabulated below.
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| {| class="wikitable" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto"
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| |+Available fireworks measured by experts:
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| |Loudness Measured
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| |Brightness Measured
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| |-
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| |Fire Tornado
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| |8
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| |10
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| |-
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| |Warm Greetings
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| |2
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| |3
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| |-
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| |Happy Flower
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| |5
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| |6
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| |-
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| |Dancing Butterfly
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| |4
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| |9
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| |}
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| ==== Complete the Table ====
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| {| class="wikitable" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto"
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| |+Total goodness table:
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| |Total Goodness for Fuilder
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| |Total Goodness for Glorin
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| |Total Goodness for All
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| |-
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| |Fire Tornado
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| |{{Correct|108}}
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| |{{Correct|-70}}
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| |{{Correct|38}}
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| |-
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| |Warm Greetings
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| |{{Correct|32}}
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| |{{Correct|-17}}
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| |{{Correct|15}}
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| |-
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| |Happy Flower
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| |{{Correct|65}}
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| |{{Correct|-44}}
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| |{{Correct|21}}
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| |-
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| |Dancing Butterfly
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| |{{Correct|94}}
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| |{{Correct|-31}}
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| |{{Correct|63}}
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| |}
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| <ol start=1><li>Use the preferences given (see the two tables in the previous section) to fill out the "total goodness" table.</li></ol>
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| <ol start=2><li>Which firework would you choose if you are a person from Fuilder? Which would you choose if you are from Glorin?</li></ol>
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| {{BoxAnswer|Fuilder like Fire Tornado. Fire Tornado BIG. Glorin like Warm Greetings. Warm Greetings smol.}}
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| <ol start=3><li>Which firework would you choose as an advisor for the prince?</li></ol>
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| {{BoxAnswer|Kumperdinck like Dancing Butterfly. Dancing Butterfly politically optimal for maintaining tenuous grip of power over the worthless peons ruled over.}}
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| <ol start=4><li>Explain how this technique produces/outputs an optimal type of firework.</li></ol>
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| {{BoxAnswer|By assigning numerical scores to all the values and finding the result that is most preferred. This seems very utilitarian. But, the nice thing is that it allows all the stakeholders to define ''their own'' utility function. In a real case you likely assign the value scores by giving people certain amounts of points to distribute. This helps bound people's values in a practical way.}}
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| === Campus Development ===
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| {{BoxCaution|This discussion was written specifically for UC Berkeley. You may want to switch it out for something more relevant to your students.}}
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| There are talks of developing the Oxford Field Track (a large plot of land owned by UC Berkeley in Northside near downtown). It currently holds farms, greenhouses, and other research facilities for the College of Natural Resources. Suppose you are a campus administrator tasked with using a method like that of the Denver Bullet Study to determine which of the following development proposals to adopt.
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| # Leave the land as is for CNR.
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| # Build high density student housing on it.
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| # Turn the land into a public park.
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| # Build academic buildings to hold classrooms and offices.
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| Following the Denver Bullet Study method, answer the following questions in small groups.
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| # Who are the stakeholders?
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| # Who might the experts be?
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| # List some positive and negative consequences of the above plans that the stakeholders might value.
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| # How might the experts determine the consequences of each proposal?
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| === Final Questions ===
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| * What is a potential policy decision that you ''should not'' decide with a Denver Bullet Study method?
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| * What's a current or former policy proposal that ''would'' benefit from a Denver Bullet Study style decision?</restricted>{{NavCard|prev=12.2 Grill the Guest|next=13.2 Deliberative Polling}}
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| [[Category:Lesson plans]] | | [[Category:Lesson plans]] |
