9.2 Biases

Some of the psychological biases that make our probability judgments go awry.

The Lesson in Context

This lesson is in the middle our "heuristics and biases" series and tends to be one of the more popular lessons in the course. It focusses on people's "hot" biases that are more emotionally or socially driven. Unfortunately, people that know about these biases are generally not actually less likely to fall into them. We choose to teach the students about them anyways.

Relation to Earlier Lessons

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8.1 Orders of Understanding

• Orders of Understanding is about how each event arises from multiple influences, some more important than others. Human behavior, for instance, is affected by both individual differences and by circumstance or context, including pressures to conform and obey, and we often overestimate the former and underestimate the latter (FAE).

9.1 Heuristics

• The first lesson on H&B is on "cold" biases around numbers and frequencies. The second lesson (this one) is on "hot" biases, more emotion and value-laden thinking. Both involve heuristics, strategies for making quick judgments that can be useful in some contexts but can also go awry.

Relation to Later Lessons

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10.1 Confirmation Bias

• Confirmation bias is a broader form of bias in which people tend to look for and believe evidence or arguments supporting what they already believe or expect, and to neglect or dismiss evidence and arguments against what they believe or expect. It can exacerbate other biases, including status quo bias, temporal discounting, and/or the fundamental attribution error.

12.1 Wisdom of Crowds and Herd Thinking

• Herd thinking is what happens when people in a group conform too much to each other's ideas, neglecting problems with their ideas and convincing each other to become more confident in their shared ideas than is warranted. This tendency is undergirded by the pressure to conform to the group and also the pressure to go along with anyone in the group perceived as an authority (obedience).

14.1 Scenario Planning

• Scenario Planning involves considering four different possible future scenarios. It is one strategy that may reduce status quo bias and temporal discounting by making more salient a variety of possible futures, and how they may differ from the present in both desirable and undesirable ways.

Takeaways

After this lesson, students should

1. Be wary of underestimating the influence of context or circumstance on human behavior (their own and others'). E.g. Circumstance excuses my bad behavior more than it excuses the bad behavior of others.
2. Be aware of the pressure to conform, in oneself and others, and the difficulty of resisting this pressure.
3. Be able to sort situations by the difficulty of resisting conformity, according to:
   1. Number of people conforming
   2. Identification with the group
   3. Confidence that the group is mistaken
   4. Presence or absence of a dissenter
4. Be aware of the pressure to obey authority, in oneself and others.
5. Be able to sort situations by the difficulty of resisting obedience, according to:
   1. Perceived authority of the "authority" giving instructions
   2. Proximity of the authority
   3. Proximity of the "victim"
   4. Presence of another disobeying
   5. Availability or salience of alternative, disobedient behaviors

Additional Learning Goals

What follows are additional learning goals that we would like to include, but aren't deeply covered in this discussion's lesson plan. We would like to cover them if we had more time.

6. Predict that people will engage in temporal discounting when making decisions between something now vs. something later. E.g. People make decisions based on how good they think the outcomes will be, not based on when those outcomes will happen.
7. Be wary of their own temptation to excessive temporal discounting when making decisions, choosing immediate rewards over longer term benefits. E.g. If I choose to get something less good that I can get sooner, it's always because I need it sooner.
8. Be aware and wary of status quo bias. E.g. The way things are is the best way for things to be. Keeping things the way they are is safer.
9. Understand not to assume the status quo is necessarily stable, even if we don't try to change it. E.g. It is possible to keep things just the way they are, and that is the most stable and predictable approach.

Fundamental Attribution Error

Also called lay dispositionism, this is the tendency to underestimate the importance of context and circumstance and overestimate the importance of individual differences in explaining and predicting behaviors, especially behaviors of other people.

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Conformity Bias

The tendency to behave similarly to others in proximity or in one's in-group, sometimes despite good reasons to behave differently from others.

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Obedience/Authority Bias

The tendency to follow the instructions or commands of others perceived as having some authority, even when one has good reason to disobey.

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Temporal Discounting

Evidence shows that present rewards are weighted more heavily than future ones. As rewards become more distant in time, they are perceived as less and less valuable.

• Hyperbolic Discounting

  A somewhat more nuanced version of this theory where people's valuations fall rapidly for earlier delay periods but more fall more slowly for longer ones. This means the difference between one and two days may be treated as more significant than between one and two months (for example).

Fundamental Attribution Error

If someone cuts us off while driving, our first thought might be “What a jerk!” instead of considering the possibility that the driver is rushing someone to the airport. On the flip side, when we cut someone off in traffic, we tend to convince ourselves that we had good reason to do so. We focus on situational factors, like being late to a meeting, and ignore what our behavior might say about our own character. (Source)

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Conformity Bias

Studies show that people are more likely to act in a prosocial manner, such as contributing to charity or conserving water, if they see or hear that others are doing it too. However, it also works in the other direction, e.g. "cheating is contagious." (Source)

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Obedience Bias

A physician ordered ear drops to be administered to the right ear of a patient suffering from pain and infection. Instead of writing out completely “Right ear” on the prescription, the doctor abbreviated it, “place in R ear.” The duty nurse misread “R ear” to be “Rear.” Upon receiving the prescription, she promptly put the required number of ear drops into the patient's anus without considering whether this was a sensible treatment for ear infection. (Source)

This story came up on many sites and is supposedly from the linked book but we haven't been able to verify it.

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Temporal Discounting

When asked if they'll take one cookie now or 3 cookies in 4 days people are more likely to take the cookie now.

This is generally true for short time scales and small rewards but gets more nuanced otherwise. If the reward later is sufficiently bigger, people are generally willing to wait. For instance, people will take $10,000 in 2 months over $100 right now. There are also strong individual differences in temporal discounting.

"It is easy for people to disobey when they think orders are unjust or wrong."

It is often quite difficult for people to disobey perceived authority, even when one feels strongly that the orders are unjust or foolish.

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"It is easy to avoid conforming, I rarely conform."

It is often quite difficult not to conform, and indeed much of our conformity is entirely unnoticed and reflexive. Much of this is unproblematic, e.g. what time of day we eat or sleep, what language we speak, which side of the road we drive on, etc. are all easier if we coordinate with the people around us. However, other patterns of conformity are quite unnecessary and can be oppressive to those with other preferences - e.g. what to wear, who to love, etc. Even nonconformists typically conform to patterns given by countercultural subgroups like goths, nerds, etc.

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10.1 Confirmation Bias