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| [[File:Topic Cover - 9.1 Heuristics.png|thumb]]
| | {{Cover|9.1 Heuristics}} |
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| Humans make many decisions on a daily basis, often in the absence of complete information or under constraints of limited time and cognitive capacity. We present the mechanism and usefulness of cognitive shortcuts such as availability heuristic and representativeness heuristic, as well as the often unnoticed pitfalls that arise from using them for judgments and decision making. | | Humans make many decisions on a daily basis, often in the absence of complete information or under constraints of limited time and cognitive capacity. We present the mechanism and usefulness of cognitive shortcuts such as availability heuristic and representativeness heuristic, as well as the often unnoticed pitfalls that arise from using them for judgments and decision making. |
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| == The Lesson in Context == | | == The Lesson in Context == |
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| Humans make many decisions on a daily basis, often in the absence of complete information or under constraints of limited time and cognitive capacity. We use heuristics as useful shortcuts for quick decision making, which may introduce bias into our conclusions. The purpose of the lesson is not to cast doubt on our use of heuristics, but to recognize the limitations of quick human judgments and their consequences. This parallels [[2.1 Senses and Instrumentation]] and [[2.2 Systematic and Statistical Uncertainty]], where the limitations of instruments are discussed and quantified, without rejecting the validity and usefulness of instruments altogether. | | Humans make many decisions on a daily basis, often in the absence of complete information or under constraints of limited time and cognitive capacity. We use heuristics as useful shortcuts for quick decision making, which may introduce bias into our conclusions. The purpose of the lesson is not to cast doubt on our use of heuristics, but to recognize the limitations of quick human judgments and their consequences. This parallels [[2.1 Senses and Instrumentation]] and [[2.2 Systematic and Statistical Uncertainty]], where the limitations of instruments are discussed and quantified, without rejecting the validity and usefulness of instruments altogether. |
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| <!-- Expandable section relating this lesson to earlier lessons. --> | | <!-- Expandable section relating this lesson to other lessons. --> |
| {{Expand|Relation to Earlier Lessons| | | {{Expand|Relation to Other Lessons| |
| | '''Earlier Lessons''' |
| {{ContextLesson|2.1 Senses and Instrumentation}} | | {{ContextLesson|2.1 Senses and Instrumentation}} |
| {{ContextRelation|Senses and instrumentation are inherently imperfect, but imperfect tools can still be useful in obtaining partial knowledge. Similarly, heuristics are flawed, but they can make useful tools when time, knowledge, and mental resources are limited.}} | | {{ContextRelation|Senses and instrumentation are inherently imperfect, but imperfect tools can still be useful in obtaining partial knowledge. Similarly, heuristics are flawed, but they can make useful tools when time, knowledge, and mental resources are limited.}} |
| {{ContextLesson|2.2 Systematic and Statistical Uncertainty}} | | {{ContextLesson|2.2 Systematic and Statistical Uncertainty}} |
| {{ContextRelation|The use of heuristics can often introduce bias into our judgments — tendencies to make one decision more often than another, paralleling the idea of systematic uncertainty in instrumental measurements.}} | | {{ContextRelation|The use of heuristics can often introduce bias into our judgments — tendencies to make one decision more often than another, paralleling the idea of systematic uncertainty in instrumental measurements.}} |
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| <!-- Expandable section relating this lesson to later lessons. -->
| | '''Later Lessons''' |
| {{Expand|Relation to Later Lessons|
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| {{ContextLesson|9.2 Biases}} | | {{ContextLesson|9.2 Biases}} |
| {{ContextRelation|This lesson focuses on heuristics that affect our judgments of frequencies — how often things occur or likelihoods of events. The next lesson discusses biases in decision making that stem from a self-centered view of the world—an overemphasis on "me" and "now" and overusing defaults and assumptions.}} | | {{ContextRelation|This lesson focuses on heuristics that affect our judgments of frequencies — how often things occur or likelihoods of events. The next lesson discusses biases in decision making that stem from a self-centered view of the world—an overemphasis on "me" and "now" and overusing defaults and assumptions.}} |
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| {{ContextRelation|We single out confirmation bias into its own topic, as it permeates scientific and group decision making, affecting both our sense of the prevalence of events around us as well as the importance of "me" and "now".}} | | {{ContextRelation|We single out confirmation bias into its own topic, as it permeates scientific and group decision making, affecting both our sense of the prevalence of events around us as well as the importance of "me" and "now".}} |
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| == Takeaways == | | == Takeaways == |
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